Study of Dropout Rate Progress in Schools Receiving Archive Project Students

Study of Schools receiving Archive Project Students
Progress increasing the 9th to 10th grade promotion rate at Pinkston and Sunset High Schools, the two main high schools attended by Quintanilla Students. The spread sheets below document the 9th to 10th grade dropout/attrition rate going from 39.6% (the average dropout rate 2000-2005) to 28.5% the 2007-2008 school year. This is the grade transition when most dropouts are lost in Dallas ISD. This is a drop of 28% in the 9th to 10th grade dropout rate! A 28% improvement!
		www.studentmotivation.org
The first class to write a letter for the School Archive was the 2005 class at Quintanilla. They were not able to see the Archive itself as it was not installed till the summer of 2005, after they left for high school.
The 8th Grade Class of 2006 were the first class to write Archive letters and also have their photos taken in front of the Archive with their Language Arts Class. They are the 10th grade class of 2007-2008. They graduate in 2010.
8th Grade Class of 2007 were the first class at Quintanilla to never have known Quintanilla without the Archive Project. Their photos were taken holding their letters with their Language Arts Class. Then they each placed their letter into the Archive themselves where it stays until their 10-year class reunion.

Pinkston Enrollment	1997- 1998	1998- 1999	1999- 2000	2000- 2001	2001- 2002	2002- 2003	2003- 2004	2004- 2005	2005- 2006	Avg. 1998- 2006	2006- 2007	2007- 2008
9th	345	297	313	331	323	369	431	465	491	372	490	461
10th	228	194	178	174	177	165	230	274	284	200	303	324
Percent of 9th in next year's 10th		56.2%	59.9%	55.6%	53.5%	51.1%	62.3%	63.6%	61.1%	57.5%	61.7%	66.1%
11th	133	191	171	181	147	142	131	172	210	157	223	222
Decrease 10th - 11th		16.2%	11.9%	-1.7%	15.5%	19.8%	20.6%	25.2%	23.4%	15.2%	21.5%	26.7%
12th	159	115	166	128	117	123	116	123	168	129	181	179
Total student enrollment	865	797	828	814	764	799	908	1034	1153	858	1197	1186


Sunset Enrollment	1997- 1998	1998- 1999	1999- 2000	2000- 2001	2001- 2002	2002- 2003	2003- 2004	2004- 2005	2005- 2006	Avg. 1998- 2006	2006- 2007	2007- 2008
9th	758	737	705	714	855	894	818	813	824	800	794	732
10th	394	427	461	410	546	496	482	498	545	482	572	594
Percent of 9th in next year's 10th		56.3%	62.6%	58.2%	76.5%	58.0%	53.9%	60.9%	67.0%	60.9%	69.4%	74.8%
11th	433	295	301	341	358	382	423	385	396	365	490	498
Decrease 10th - 11th		25.1%	29.5%	26.0%	12.7%	30.0%	14.7%	20.1%	20.5%	22.6%	10.1%	12.9%
12th	391	347	277	241	275	308	330	373	346	318	372	454
Total student enrollment	1976	1806	1744	1706	2034	2080	2053	2069	2111	1927	2228	2278

The following spreadsheet combines the numbers from both those above:
Combined Enrollment	1997- 1998	1998- 1999	1999- 2000	2000- 2001	2001- 2002	2002- 2003	2003- 2004	2004- 2005	2005- 2006	Avg. 1998- 2006	2006- 2007	2007- 2008	Avg. 2000- 2005	2005- 2006	2006- 2007	2007- 2008
9th	1103	1034	1018	1045	1178	1263	1249	1278	1315	1172	1284	1193	1172	1315	1284	1193
10th	622	621	639	584	723	661	712	772	829	682	875	918	682	829	875	918
Percent of 9th in next year's 10th		56.3%	61.8%	57.4%	69.2%	56.1%	56.4%	61.8%	64.9%	59.8%	66.5%	71.5%	60.4%	64.9%	66.5%	71.5%
11th	566	486	472	522	505	524	554	557	606	522	713	720	522	606	713	720
Decrease 10th - 11th		41.35%	24.0%	18.3%	13.5%	27.5%	16.2%	21.8%	21.5%	20.2%	14.0%	17.7%	20.2%	21.5%	14.0%	17.7%
12th	550	462	443	369	392	431	446	496	514	430	553	633	430	514	553	633
Total student enrollment	2841	2603	2572	2520	2798	2879	2961	3103	3264	2806	3425	3464	2806	3264	3425	3464
Conclusions from above enrollment patterns:
1) The percent of the 9th grade who enrolled in the 10th grade grew each year during the past three years at both schools, especially when compared with that average for the previous 6 years. By the third year it had increased over 8 percentage points at Pinkston, from the 6 year average of 57.7% to 66.1%, and over 13 points at Sunset, from the 6-year average of 61.7% to 74.8% in 2008.													Avg. 2000- 2005	2005- 2006	2006- 2007	2007- 2008
2) The 9th grade enrollment has consistently gone down due to a lowering retention rate. Fewer students are repeating the 9th grade. Students are entering the 9th grade better motivated and better prepared for 9th grade work.													60.4%	64.9%	66.5%	71.5%
3) 10th grade numbers are going up constantly due to a combination of the factors in #1 above as well as better motivated students in general. It is in the 10th grade enrollment number increases we will see the truth in the fact that fewer students are leaving. To continue these increases it is recommended that there be writing projects in high school that draw on the Archive Project experience to remind students of the planned reunion, now less than 8 years away.

A study selecting out for Quintanilla students at these two schools would clarify the amount Quintanilla students, and the Archive Project, may have contributed to these enrollment changes over the past 4 years.
www.studentmotivation.org
Compiled 5-12-08 By Bill Betzen, Quintanilla Middle School, Computer Applications Teacher, Dallas, Texas


Percent of last year's 9th in this year's 10th grade		Avg. 2000- 2005	2005- 2006	2006- 2007	2007- 2008
Pinkston		57.7	61.1	61.7	66.1
Sunset		61.7	67	69.4	74.8

Remember that the 9th to 10th grade transition is when the largest percentage of dropouts leave school. If we can lessen the percentage of students who leave during this critical transition then we are well on our way to lowering the entire dropout rate.

													Both Schools are combined in the bar chart above: